Alexey Fedorov

I am Professor of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences of Yale University and a Senior Visiting Scientist at the LOCEAN/IPSL at the Sorbonne University. I lead Ocean, Atmosphere and Climate Modeling group. Welcome to my Web page.

My research aims to advance our knowledge of climate, ocean and atmospheric dynamics in the context of contemporary global warming and past climate changes. In particular, I am interested in the problems of ocean and atmospheric general circulation, especially in relation to climate, large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, climate predictability, and mechanisms of long-term climate variations. My group engages these problems using modern observational and numerical methodologies and the tools of physics, mathematics, and computer sciences. In particular, we employ state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCM), advanced theoretical methods, statistical data analysis, as well as idealized and conceptual models of climate. The ultimate goal of my research is to advance our understanding of physical processes that control climate, ocean and atmospheric dynamics and to improve our ability to predict climate changes.

Quite often, we have vacancies for Ph.D. studies in our department for qualified candidates interested in pursuing these and other important problems. We also often have openings for postdoctoral positions to work in my group funded by NSF grants or by Postdoctoral Fellowships sponsored by the Department or Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies. Below I describe several examples of topics I have been working over the years .

One of the dramatic examples of climate phenomena that affect climate globally is El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This is a quasi-periodic oscillation that originates in the tropical Pacific due to large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. El Nino is its warm phase and La Nina - its cold phase. El Nino involves zonal advection of warm waters from the western equatorial Pacific to the east and a weakening of the atmospheric circulation (of the Walker cell) that happen every 3-5 years.

Can we accurately model and predict El Nino more than a few months in advance? Will a strong El Nino, similar to the event of 1997/1998, occur any time soon? Can Earth’s climate, with future global warming, slide to permanent El Nino-like conditions in the tropics? In fact, this was a dominant climate state in the past (Fedorov et al 2006).

Can climate change abruptly (Barreiro et al 2008), say, on decadal timescales? Apparently, this has happened on multiple occasions in the past and was related to reorganizations of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) that resulted in temperature shifts of the order of 10 degrees Celsius in the Northern Atlantic. Can such a rapid climate transition happen with future global warming? And if it does, will the abrupt climate change originate in high latitudes (say, in the northern Atlantic), or in low latitudes (in the tropical Pacific, for example)? What will happen with ocean circulation in global warming? Will the Gulf Stream disappear and parts of Europe get into a deep freeze? The answer to this latter question is a NO, and if somebody claims to the contrary he or she supports a myth that has no scientific basis. Nevertheless, changes in the strength of ocean overturning circulation are likely, which may still have an important effect on climate (Fedorov et al 2007).

A related question is what controls the ocean thermal structure of and its overturning circulation. It has been recognized for some time that the deep ocean is very cold (just barely above freezing). This is a consequence of two factors: (i) water masses in the ocean abyss originate in high latitudes when surface waters sink and (ii) there is very little vertical mixing in the ocean.

We have employed a Lagrangian ocean model (LOM) in an idealized setting to study the relative contribution of the two processes to the ocean thermal structure. The LOM computes actual trajectories of water parcels as they travel through the ocean and can be run in a fully adiabatic regime (no mixing whatsoever with surrounding waters after sinking). The figure above shows different water masses as simulated by this model (Haertel and Fedorov 2011.

We have computed synthetic tracks of tropical cyclones in different climate states (modern, the Pliocene warm period) and studied their potential contribution to global climate. We published a paper on this subject in Nature (Fedorov et al 2010). More recently we studied the effect of anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones (Studholme at al. 2022).

Jacob Stuivenvolt-Allen

Minmin Fu

Soong-Ki Kim

Paul Curtis

Zhiyuan Li

Demetra Yancopoulos

Former:

Yoania Povea-Perez (PhD Sorbonne 2023; at LOCEAN, Paris), co-advising
Ulla Heede (PhD 2022; CIRES Postdoctoral Fellow, Univ. of Colorado)
Yu Liang (PhD 2022; Postdoc, Scripps, UCSD)
Ryan Li (PhD 2022; Amazon software engineer)
Bowen Zhao (PhD 2020; Postdoc, Tsinghua Univ.)
Shineng Hu (PhD 2018; Assistant Professor, Duke Univ.)
Joshua Studholme (PhD 2018, Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia), co-advising
Jian Shi (PhD 2019, Peking Univ., Assitant Professor, Ocean University of China), co-advising
Georgy Manucharyan (PhD 2014; Associate Professor, Univ. of Washington)
Laura Bakkensen (PhD 2014; Associate Professor, Univ. of Arizona); external advisor/committee member
Melanie Parker (PhD 2012; Senior Research Scientist at AIR Worldwide, Boston)
Carlos Szembek (MS 2008; Senior Research Scientist at ERM, New Orleans)
Guillaume Delaviel-Anger (MS 2022; Officer, French Defense Procurement Agency)

Current:

Theo Schiminovich

Former:

Emma Levin (BS 2023; PhD student, Princeton)
Danya Levy (BS 2019; data engineer, MissionWired )
Clara Ma (BS 2019; PhD student, Cambridge)
Maddie Shankle (BS 2018; PhD student, Univ. of St. Andrews, UK); thesis reader
Holden Leslie-Bole (BS 2018; PhD student, Scripps)
Sophia Merrifield (BS 2010; Research Oceanographer, Scripps Institute of Oceanography)
Asher Siebert (BA Princeton, 2002; Senior Associate, IRI, Columbia)

Current: The impacts of stratospheric temperature on atmospheric and oceanic  circulation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. A manuscript is under review in Journal of Climate.

2023-2026: co-Principal Investigator, “ The role of tropical Indian Ocean warming in E3SM and other Earth system models”. (Collaboration with Duke University). Department of Energy

2022-2025: Principal Investigator, “The mechanisms, impacts and predictability of extreme El Niño events in E3SM and other Earth system models”. (Collaboration with Harvard University).

2022-2023: PI, Yale Planetary Solutions seed grant: “Simulating Pliocene climate 2022–2023 as a blueprint for future warming: From cloud physics and ocean circulation to extreme precipitation and droughts”

2021-2024: Principal Investigator, “Coupled dynamics of the North equatorial countercurrent and the Intertropical convergence zone”. NASA

2021-2024: PI, “Collaborative research: the impacts of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate”. NSF

2020-2023: Principal Investigator. , “Changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific and the mechanisms of extreme El Niño events”. NOAA

2019-2025: co-Investigator, “Arctic climate change, global ocean circulation and basin interconnections”.  at LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne University, France

2018-2021: Principal Investigator , ”Collaborative research: Examining the links between AMOC variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) – from oceanic internal modes to climate impacts”. NSF

2017-2020: Principal Investigator, “The Arctic ocean control of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on multi-decadal and longer timescales”. NSF

2014-2017: Principal Investigator.  “The impact of meridional variations in cloud albedo on tropical climatology, and biases, in Earth system models.” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

2014-2017: Principal Investigator.  “The impact of westerly wind bursts and ocean state on the development and diversity of El Niño events:  insights from satellite-based observations and numerical experiments”, funding for a Graduate Student Fellowship, NASA.

2014-2017: Principal Investigator. “Understanding mean patterns, gradients, variability and mechanisms of early Pliocene warmth: The role of cloud albedo.” National Science Foundation. 

2011-2014: Principal Investigator. “A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implications for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change.” Department of Energy.

2011-2014: Co-Principal Investigator. “Collaboration Research: Lagrangian Modeling of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves and the Madden Julian Oscillation.” National Science Foundation.

2009-2012: Principal Investigator. “Collaboration Research: Reconstructing Meridional Temperature Gradient and Climate Conditions of the Early Pliocene.” National Science Foundation.

2009-2011: Principal Investigator. “Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.” Department of Energy.

2007-2014: Principal Investigator. “El Niño and Global Warming:  Past and Future Response of the Atmosphere-Ocean System.” David and Lucile Packard Foundation.

2006-2008: Principal Investigator. “Net Energy Dissipation in the Tropical Ocean and ENSO Dynamics: modeling and theoretical study.” National Science Foundation.

2006-2008: Principal Investigator. “Abrupt Climate Changes Involving the Tropics.” Department of Energy.

2003-2005: Co-Principal Investigator.  “Diabatic Aspects of Decadal Climate Fluctuations.” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

2002-2004: Co-Principal Investigator.  “Climate Variability on Decadal and Longer Timescales.” NASA.

http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qzgacWoAAAAJ&hl

Star (*) indicates the first author is Fedorov’s PhD student or postdoc

Fedorov, A.V., Hu, S., Wittenberg, A., Levine, A. and C. Deser, 2020: ENSO low-frequency modulation and mean state interactions. In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (M.J. McPhaden, A. Santoso, W. Cai, ed.).  Wiley, 173-198.

*Liu W. and Fedorov A.V., 2021: Oceans and rapid climate change. In From Hurricanes to Epidemics (K. Conrad, ed.). Springer, 67-80.

Fedorov A.V. and J. Brown, 2009: Equatorial waves. In Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, Second Edition (J. Steele, K. Turekian, and S. Thorpe, ed.), Academic Press, 3679-3695.

Fedorov A.V., 2008: Ocean-atmosphere coupling. In The Oxford Companion to Global Change (A. Goudie and D.Cuff, ed.). Oxford University Press, 369-374.

Fedorov A.V. and Melville, W.K. 1998: Breaking internal waves and fronts in rotating fluids. In Physical processes in lakes and oceans (J. Imberger, ed.). AGU, 251-260.

Star (*) indicates the first author is Fedorov’s PhD student or postdoc

2023

*Heede, U.K., and Fedorov, A.V., 2023. A stronger Walker circulation and colder eastern equatorial Pacific in the early 21st century: separating the forced response of the climate system from natural variability. GRL, e2022GL101020

*Li, R., Studholme, J., Fedorov, A.V., Storelvmo, T., 2023: Increasing precipitation efficiency amplifies climate sensitivity by enhancing tropical circulation slowdown and eastern Pacific warming pattern. GRL, e2022GL100836

2022

*Studholme, J., Fedorov, A.V., Gulev, S., Emanuel, K., Hodges, K., 2022: Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates. Nature Geoscience 15, 14-28.

Ford, H.L., Burls, N., Caballero, R., Fedorov, A.V., Hodell, D., Jacobs, P., Jahn, A., 2022: Sustained mid-Pliocene warmth led to deep water formation in the North Pacific. Nature Geoscience 15, 658-663.

*Li, R., Studholme, J., Fedorov, A.V., Storelvmo, T., 2022: Precipitation efficiency constraint on climate change. Nature Climate Change 12, 642-648.

*Li, Z. and Fedorov, A.V., 2022: Coupled dynamics of the North Equatorial Countercurrent and Intertropical Convergence Zone with relevance to the double-ITCZ problem. PNAS 119, e2120309119

*Liang, Y. and Fedorov, A.V., 2022. Excitation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in response to surface warming in SPCAM.  GRL. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100853

*Ferster, B.S., Fedorov, A.V., Mignot, J. and Guilyardi, E., 2022: Slowdown and recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a persistent North Atlantic warming hole induced by Arctic sea ice decline. Geophysical Research Letters, e2022GL097967

Zheng, Y., Fedorov, A.V., Burls, N.J., Zhang, R., Brierley, C., Fang, Z., Yu, X., Xian, F. and Lu, H., 2022: Severe drought conditions in northern East Asia during the early Pliocene caused by weakened Pacific meridional temperature gradient. Geophysical Research Letters 49, e2022GL098813

Hill, S., Burls, N.J., Fedorov, A.V. and Merlis, T., 2022: Symmetric and antisymmetric components of polar-amplified warming. Journal of Climate, 1-49.

*Yu, S. and Fedorov, A.V., 2022: The essential role of westerly wind bursts in shaping ENSO characteristics and extreme events in model “wind stress shaving” experiments. Journal of Climate, 1-62.

*Liu, W. and Fedorov, A.V., 2022: Interaction between Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate. Climate Dynamics, 58, 1811–1827.

2021

Shankle, M.G., Burls, N., Fedorov, A.V., Thomas, M., Penman, D.E., Ford, H.L., Jacobs, P., Liu, W., Planavsky, N.J., and Hull, P.M., 2021: Pliocene decoupling of equatorial Pacific temperature and pH gradients. Nature 598, 457–461

*Heede, U.K., and Fedorov, A.V., 2021. Eastern equatorial Pacific warming delayed by aerosols and thermostat response to CO2 increase. Nature Climate Change 11, 696–703.

*Liang, Y., Fedorov, A.V. and Haertel, P., 2021. Intensification of westerly wind bursts caused by the coupling of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation to SST during El Niño onset and development. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(9), p.e2020GL089395.

*Liang, Y., Fedorov, A.V., Zeitlin, V. and Haertel, P., 2021. Excitation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in atmospheric adjustment to equatorial heating. J. of Atmos. Sciences, 78, 3933-3950.

*Liang, Y. and Fedorov, A.V., 2021. Linking the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones and westerly wind bursts as part of El Niño development. Climate Dynamics, 57, 1039-1060.

*Zhao, B., Zeitlin, V. and Fedorov, A.V., 2021. Equatorial modons in dry and moist-convective shallow-water systems on a rotating sphere. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 916.

*Thomas, M.D., Fedorov, A.V., Burls, N.J. and Liu, W., 2021. Oceanic Pathways of an Active Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (PMOC). Geophysical Research Letters, 48, p.e2020GL091935.

*Heede, U.K., Fedorov, A.V. and Burls, N.J., 2021. A stronger versus weaker Walker: understanding model differences in fast and slow tropical Pacific responses to global warming. Climate Dynamics, 57, 2505–2522

*Ferster, B.S., Fedorov, A.V., Mignot, J. and Guilyardi, E., 2021: Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate to tropical Indian Ocean warming. Climate Dynamics, 57, 2433–2451.

*Li, H. and Fedorov, A.V., 2021: Persistent freshening of the Arctic Ocean and changes in the North Atlantic salinity caused by Arctic sea ice decline. Climate Dynamics, 57, 2995–3013.

*Li, H., Fedorov, A. and Liu, W., 2021. AMOC stability and diverging response to Arctic sea ice decline in two climate models. J. of Climate, 34, 5443-5460.

2020

*Hu, S., and Fedorov, A.V., 2020: Indian Ocean warming as a driver of the North Atlantic warming hole. Nature communications, 11, 4785

*Liu, W., Fedorov, A.V., Xie, S.-P.  and Hu, S., 2020: Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate., Science Advances, 6, eaaz4876.

*Yu, S. and Fedorov, A.V., 2020: The role of westerly wind bursts during different seasons versus ocean heat recharge in the development of extreme El Niño in climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, p.e2020GL088381.

*Heede, U.K., Fedorov, A.V. and Burls, N.J., 2020. Time Scales and Mechanisms for the Tropical Pacific Response to Global Warming: A Tug of War between the Ocean Thermostat and Weaker Walker. Journal of Climate, 33, 6101-6118.

*Shi, J., Fedorov, A.V. and Hu, S., 2020: A Sea Surface Height Perspective on El Niño Diversity, Ocean Energetics, and Energy Damping Rates. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, p.e2019GL086742.

*Zhao, B. and Fedorov, A., 2020: The seesaw response of the intertropical and South Pacific convergence zones to hemispherically asymmetric thermal forcing. Climate Dynamics, 54, 1639-1653.

*Zhao, B. and Fedorov, A., 2020. The effects of background zonal and meridional winds on ENSO in a coupled GCM. Journal of Climate, 33, 2075-2091.

2019

*Hu, S., and Fedorov, A.V., 2019: Indian Ocean warming can strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change 9, 747-751.

Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A.V., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., et al. (2019). Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review and synthesis. J. Geophys. Res.: Oceans, 124, 5336–5375.

*Shi, J., Fedorov, A.V. and Hu, S. 2019: North Pacific temperature and precipitation response to El Niño-like equatorial heating: sensitivity to forcing location. Climate Dyn., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04655-x

*Li, R.L., Storelvmo, T., Fedorov, A.V., and Choi, Y.-S., 2019: A positive iris feedback: insights from climate model simulations with temperature-sensitive cloud-rain conversion. J. Climate. 32, 5305-5324.

Liu, J., Tian, J., Liu, Z., Herbert, T., Fedorov, A.V, and Lyle, M. 2019: Pacific cold tongue evolution since the late Miocene linked to extratropical climate. Science Advances 5.

*Thomas, M. and Fedorov, A.V., 2019: Mechanisms and impacts of an AMOC partial recovery under climate change forcing. GRL 46, 3308-3316.

*Liu, W., Fedorov, A.V. and Sevellec, F. 2019: The mechanisms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown induced by Arctic sea ice decline. J. Climate, 32, 977–996.

*Liu, W. and Fedorov, A.V. 2019: Global impacts of Arctic sea ice decline mediated by Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080602

2018

*Hu, S., and Fedorov, A.V., 2018: The impact of cross-equatorial winds on El Niño diversity and change. Nature Climate Change 8, 798-802.

*Liu, W., Lu, J., Xie, S.P. and Fedorov, A., 2018. Southern Ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and storage in a warming climate: The role of meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Climate, 31, pp.4727-4743.

Fedorov, A.V., Muir, L., Boos, W., and J. Studholme, 2018: Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates: simulations with a cloud-system resolving model. Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4134-2

Germe, A., Sévellec, F., Mignot, J., Fedorov, A.V., Nguyen, S., and Swingedouw, D., 2018: The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability. Climate Dynamics, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z

2017

*Sévellec, F. and Fedorov, A.V., and W. Liu, 2017: Arctic sea ice decline weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change 7, 604-610.

*Burls, N., and Fedorov, A.V., 2017: Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: contrasting past and future hydrological cycles. PNAS. 114, 12888-12893.

*Muir, L. and Fedorov, A.V., 2017: Evidence of the AMOC interdecadal mode related to westward propagation of temperature anomalies in CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics 48, 1517-1535.

*Sévellec, F. and Fedorov, A.V., 2017: Predictability and decadal variability of the North Atlantic ocean state. J. Climate 30, 477-498

*Burls, N., Fedorov, A.V., Sigman, D.M., Jaccard, S.L., Tiedemann, R. and Haug, G.H., 2017: Active Pacific meridional overturning (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene. Science Advances 3: e1700156.

*Thomas, M. and Fedorov, A.V., 2017: The eastern subtropical Pacific origin of the equatorial cold bias in climate models: a Lagrangian perspective. J. Climate 30, 5885-5900.

Huang, A., Sriver, R.L., Fedorov, A.V., and Brierley, C.M., 2017: Regional variations in the ocean response to tropical cyclones:  cooling by mixing versus warming by low cloud suppression. GRL. 44, 1947-1955.

*Hu, S., and Fedorov, A.V., 2017: The extreme El Niño of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus, GRL 44, 3816–3824.

*Hu, S. and Fedorov, A.V., 2017: The extreme El Niño of 2015-2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3531-2

*Burls, N.J., Muir, L., Vincent, E.M. and Fedorov, A., 2017. Extra-tropical origin of equatorial Pacific cold bias in climate models with links to cloud albedo. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2093-2113.

2016

Williams, R.H., McGee, D.M., Kinsley, C.W., Ridley, D.A., Hu, S., Fedorov A.V., Tal, I., Murray, R.W. and deMenocal, P.B., 2016: Glacial to Holocene changes in trans-Atlantic Saharan dust transport and dust-climate feedbacks. Science Advances 2, 1-11.

*Hu, S. and Fedorov, A.V., 2016: An exceptional easterly wind burst stalling El Niño of 2014. PNAS 113, 2005-2010

*Pinones, M.A. and Fedorov, A.V., 2016: Projected decline of Antarctic krill spawning habitat by the end of the 21st century. GRL 43, 8580–8589

*Brierley, C. and Fedorov, A.V., 2016: Comparing the impacts of Miocene–Pliocene changes in inter-ocean gateways on climate: Central American Seaway, Bering Strait, and Indonesia. EPSL 444, 116-130.

*Sévellec, F. and Fedorov, A.V., 2016: AMOC sensitivity to surface buoyancy fluxes: Stronger ocean meridional heat transport with a weaker volume transport? Climate Dynamics 47, 1497-1513.

Boos, W., Muir, L. and Fedorov, A.V., 2016: Convective self-aggregation and tropical cyclogenesis under the hypohydrostatic rescaling. J. Atm. Sciences 73, 525–544.

2015

Fedorov, A.V., Burls, N., Lawrence, K. and Peterson, L., 2015: Tightly linked ocean zonal and meridional temperature gradients over geological timescales. Nature Geoscience 8, 975–980.

*Sévellec, F., and Fedorov, A.V. 2015: Unstable AMOC during glacial intervals and millennial variability: The role of mean sea ice extent. EPSL 429, 60-68.

Melville, W.K. and Fedorov, A.V.  2015: The equilibrium dynamics and statistics of gravity-capillary waves. J. Fluid. Mech. 767, 449-466.

*Brierley, C., Burls, N., Ravelo, A.C. and Fedorov, A.V., 2015: Pliocene warmth and gradients. Nature Geoscience 8, 419-420.

*Sévellec, F., and Fedorov, A.V., 2015: Optimal excitation of AMOC decadal variability: Links to the subpolar ocean. Progress in Oceanography 132, 287-304

2014

Ravelo, A.C. Fedorov, A.V., Lawrence, K., and Ford, H., 2014: Comment on “A 12-million-year temperature history of the tropical Pacific Ocean”. Science 346, 1467-1468

*Muir, L. and Fedorov, A.V., 2014: How the AMOC affects SST on decadal to centennial timescales: the North Atlantic versus an interhemispheric seesaw. Climate Dynamics 45, 151-16.

*Burls, N. and Fedorov, A.V., 2014: Simulating Pliocene warmth and a permanent El Niño‐like state: The role of cloud albedo. Paleoceanography 29, 893-910.

*Hu, S., Fedorov, A.V., Lengaigne, M., and Guilyardi, E., 2014: The role of westerly wind bursts in diversity and predictability of El Niño events: an ocean energetics perspective, GRL 41, 4654-4663.

Fedorov, A.V., Hu, S., Lengaigne, M., and Guilyardi, E., 2014: The role of westerly wind bursts and ocean initial state in the development and diversity of El Niño events, Climate Dynamics 39, 1-21.

*Manucharyan, G. and Fedorov, A.V. 2014: Robust ENSO across climates with different east-west equatorial SST gradients. J. Climate 27, 5836-5850.

*Burls, N. and Fedorov, A.V., 2014: What controls the equatorial east-west SST gradient: the role of cloud albedo. J. Climate 27, 2757-2778.

*Sévellec, F., and Fedorov, A.V., 2014: Millennial variability in an idealized ocean model: predicting the AMOC regime shifts. J. Climate 27, 3551-3564.

2013

Fedorov, A.V., Lawrence, K., Liu, Z, Brierley, C., Dekens, P. and Ravelo, A.C. 2013: Patterns and mechanisms of early Pliocene warmth. Nature 496, 43-49.

*Haertel, P., Straub, K. and Fedorov, A.V., 2013: Lagrangian Overturning and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 140, 1344-1361.

*Sévellec, F., and Fedorov, A.V. 2013: Model bias and the limits of oceanic decadal predictability: importance of the deep ocean. J. Climate 26, 3688–3707.

*Sévellec, F., and Fedorov, A.V. 2013: The leading, interdecadal eigenmode of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a realistic ocean model. J. Climate 26, 2160-2183.

2012

Rohling, E.J., Sluijs, A., Dijkstra, H.A., Köhler, P., van de Wal, R.S.W., von der Heydt, A.S., Beerling, D.J., Berger, A., Bijl, P.K., Crucifix, M., DeConto, R., Drijfhout, S.S., Fedorov, A.V. and co-authors, 2012: Making sense of paleoclimate sensitivity, Nature 497, 683-691.

*Haertel, P., and Fedorov, A.V. 2012: The Ventilated Ocean: stratification and overturning in an ocean with a fully adiabatic interior. J. Phys. Oceanography 42, 141-164.

Guilyardi, E., Cai, W., Collin, M., Fedorov, A.V., Jin, F.-F., Kumar, A., Sun, D.-Z, Wittenberg A., 2012: New strategies for evaluating ENSO processes in climate models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 93, 235–238.

2011

*Brierley, C. and Fedorov A.V. 2011: Tidal mixing around Indonesia and the Maritime continent: implications for paleoclimate simulations. GRL 38, 24703-24710.

*Manucharyan, G., Brierley, C. and Fedorov A.V., 2011: Climate impacts of intermittent ocean mixing induced by tropical cyclones. JGR-Oceans 116, 11038-11050.

*Sévellec, F., and Fedorov, A.V. 2011: Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a zonally-averaged ocean model: the effects of freshwater, wind and diapycnal diffusion. Deep-Sea Research, 1927-1943.

*Brown J., Fedorov, A.V., and Guilyardi, E., 2011: How well do coupled models replicate ocean energetics relevant to ENSO? Climate Dynamics  36, 2147-2158.

2010

Fedorov, A.V., Brierley, C., and Emanuel, K, 2010: Tropical cyclones and permanent El Nino in the early Pliocene epoch. Nature 463, 1066-1070.

*Sévellec, F. and Fedorov, A.V. 2010: Excitation of SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific by oceanic optimal perturbations.  J. Marine Research 68, 597-624.

Fedorov, A.V., 2010: Ocean response to wind variations, warm water volume, and simple models of ENSO in the low-frequency approximation. J.Climate 23, 3855-3873.

*Brierley, C., and Fedorov, A.V., 2010: Relative importance of meridional and zonal SST gradients for the onset of the Ice Ages and Pliocene-Pleistocene climate evolution. Paleoceanography 25, doi: 10.1029/2009PA001809.

*Brown J. and Fedorov, A.V., 2010: How much energy is transferred from the winds to the thermocline on ENSO timescales. J. Climate 23, 1563–1580.

*Brown J. and Fedorov, A.V., 2010: Estimating the diapycnal transport contribution to Warm Water Volume variations in the tropical Pacific ocean. J.Climate 23, 221-237.

2009

*Brierley, C., Fedorov A.V., Liu, Z., Herbert, T., Lawrence, K., LaRiviere, J., 2009: Greatly expanded tropical warm pool and weaker Hadley circulation in the early Pliocene, Science 323, 1714-117.

Guilyardi, E., Wittenberg, A., Fedorov, A.V., Collins, M., Wang, C., Capotondi, A., van Oldenborgh, G.-J.  and Stockdale, T., 2009: Understanding El Niño in ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Bull. Amer. Meteorological Society, 90, 325–340.

Fedorov, A.V. and Melville, W.K. 2009: A model for strongly-forced wind waves. J. Phys. Oceanography. 39, 2502-2522.

2008

*Brown J. and Fedorov, A.V., 2008: Mean energy balance in the tropical ocean, J. Marine Research, 66, 1-23.

Barreiro, M., Fedorov, A.V. and co-authors, 2008: Abrupt climate changes: How the freshening of the northern Atlantic affects the thermohaline and wind-driven oceanic circulations. Ann. Rev. of Earth and Planetary Sciences 36, 33-58.

2007

Fedorov, A.V. 2007: Net energy dissipation rates in the tropical ocean and ENSO dynamics. J.Climate 20, 1099–1108.

Fedorov, A.V., Barreiro, M., R.C. Pacanowski, Boccaletti, G. and Philander, S.G., 2007: The freshening of surface waters in high latitudes: effects on the thermohaline and wind-driven circulations. J. Phys.Oceanography. 37, 896–907.

2001-2006

Fedorov, A.V., Dekens, P., Ravelo, C., deMenocal, P., Pacanowski, R.C. and Philander, S.G., 2006: The Pliocene Paradox (Mechanisms for a permanent El Niño). Science 312, 1437-1443.

Barreiro, M., Pacanowski, R.C., Philander, S.G. and Fedorov, A.V., 2005: Simulations of warm tropical conditions with application to middle Pliocene atmospheres. Climate Dynamics 26, 349-365.

Fedorov, A.V., Pacanowski, R.C., Philander, S.G. and Boccaletti, G., 2004:  The effect of salinity on the wind-driven circulation and the thermal structure of the upper ocean. J. Phys. Oceanography. 34, 1949-1966.

Boccaletti, G., Pacanowski, R.C., Philander, S.G., and Fedorov, A.V., 2004: The thermal structure of the upper ocean. J. Phys. Oceanography 34, 888-902.

Philander, S.G.H. and Fedorov, A.V. 2003: Is El Niño sporadic or cyclic? Ann. Rev. of Earth and Planetary Sciences 31, 579-594.

Fedorov, A.V., Harper, S.L., Winter, B. and Wittenberg, A., 2003: How predictable is El Niño? Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 911-919.

Philander, S.G. and Fedorov, A.V., 2003:  The role of tropics in changing the response to Milankovitch forcing some three million years ago. Paleoceanography 18, doi:10.1029/2002PA000837.

Fedorov, A.V., 2002: The response of the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere to westerly wind bursts. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 128, 1-23.

Fedorov, A.V. and Philander, S.G., 2001: A stability analysis of the tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions: Bridging Measurements of, and Theory for El Niño. J. Climate 14, 3086-3101.

Before 2000

Fedorov, A.V. and Philander, S.G., 2000:  Is El Niño changing? Science 288, 1997-2002.

Fedorov, A.V. and Melville, W.K. 2000: Kelvin fronts on the equatorial thermocline. J.Phys. Oceanography 30, 1692-1705.

Fedorov, A.V., Melville, W.K. and Rozenberg, A. 1998: Experimental and numerical study of parasitic capillary waves. Phys. Fluids 10, 1315–1323.

Fedorov, A.V. and Melville, W. K. 1998: Nonlinear gravity-capillary waves with forcing and dissipation. J.Fluid Mech. 354, 1-42.

Fedorov, A.V. and Melville, W.K. 1996: Hydraulic jumps at boundaries in rotating fluids. J.Fluid Mech. 324, 55-82.

Fedorov, A.V. and Melville, W.K. 1995. Propagation and breaking of nonlinear Kelvin waves. J. Phys.Oceanogr. 25, 2519-2531.

Fedorov, A.V. and Malomed, B.A. 1992: Generation of flexural waves on a quasi-one-dimensional KP soliton. Wave Motion 15, 221-227.

Hu, S., and Fedorov, A. V., 2017: An interplay between westerly and easterly wind bursts shaping El Niño development in 2014-2016. U.S. CLIVAR Exchanges 71, 26-30.

Di Lorenzo, E., H. Zhang, A. Clement, B. Anderson, and A.V. Fedorov, 2013: Extra-tropical precursors of ENSO flavors. U.S. CLIVAR Variations 11, 14-18.